📄 Abstract
Rapid urbanization and demographic expansion have significantly transformed Ahmedabad District into one of the fastest-growing regions in Gujarat. Accurate population forecasting is therefore essential for effective planning, infrastructure development, and policy formulation. This study estimates the population of Ahmedabad District for the period 20222027 using both curve estimation models (quadratic, growth, exponential) and time-series analysis (ARIMA (1,2,0)). Statistical measures such as R², standard error, and significance levels are used to evaluate model performance. The quadratic model, with an R² value of 0.999, emerges as the most reliable model for medium-term projections, while ARIMA captures short-term fluctuations. The results highlight variations in projected growth patterns across models and emphasize the importance of selecting appropriate forecasting techniques for realistic demographic planning.
🏷️ Keywords
📚 How to Cite:
Pankaj Kumar D. Parmar, Dr. Sanjay Patel , POPULATION PROJECTION OF AHMEDABAD DISTRICT USING STATISTICAL MODELS (2022-2027): A COMPARATIVE ANALYTICAL STUDY , Volume 12 , Issue 3, March 2026, EPRA International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research (IJMR) ,