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PREPARING BANGLADESH FOR LDC GRADUATION AND ITS IMPACT ON GLOBAL TRADE

📘 Volume 12 📄 Issue 1 📅 January 2026

👤 Authors

Chowdhury Tanbir Ahmed 1
1. Deputy General Manager and Head of Unit, Alternate Delivery Channel Unit, Alternate Delivery Channel Unit, BASIC Bank PLC, Dhaka, Bangladesh

📄 Abstract

Bangladesh’s anticipated graduation from Least Developed Country (LDC) status in November 2026 represents a critical juncture for its economy, with profound implications for the banking sector and its integration into global trade networks. This paper investigates the financial and trade- related challenges posed by this transition, evaluates strategies to prepare the banking industry, and analyses the broader effects on international trade dynamics. Utilizing a mixed-method approach, the study draws on secondary data from authoritative sources such as the Bangladesh Bank, the World Trade Organization (WTO), and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Key findings highlight significant challenges such as the imposition of 10-12% tariffs post- graduation threatens a $6-9 billion decline in export revenue, primarily from the $45 billion ready- made garments sector. The shift from concessional loans at 1-2% to commercial rates of 5-7% increases annual debt servicing costs by $500 million, straining fiscal and banking liquidity. Non-performing loans could rise from 16.9% to even higher, jeopardizing $10 billion in RMG loans and $40 billion in trade finance operations. Globally, Bangladesh’s about 7% share of the $450 billion apparel market faces a 1-2% erosion, redirecting $4-9 billion in trade to competitors like Vietnam and India. To address these risks, the paper proposes strategic interventions, for example $6.5 billion in enhanced export credit schemes, $5 billion in innovative financing mechanisms like green bonds and Islamic Sukuk, and synergistic government-bank efforts to secure trade agreements and infrastructure upgrades. These measures aim to preserve Bangladesh’s contracting $17 billion trade deficit and $26 billion reserves, ensuring economic stability. This study underscores the banking sector’s critical role as a linchpin in this transition, offering actionable insights for financial institutions, policymakers, and trade stakeholders to reinforce Bangladesh’s competitive edge and sustain its global trade relevance through 2030 and beyond.

🔗 DOI

View DOI - (https://doi.org/10.36713/epra25743)

📚 How to Cite:

Chowdhury Tanbir Ahmed , PREPARING BANGLADESH FOR LDC GRADUATION AND ITS IMPACT ON GLOBAL TRADE , Volume 12 , Issue 1, January 2026, EPRA International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research (IJMR) , DOI: https://doi.org/10.36713/epra25743

🔗 PDF URL

https://cdn.eprapublishing.org/article/202601-01-025743.pdf

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