📄 Abstract
This study empirically investigates the relationship between exchange rate and import demand for wheat in Uganda using annual time series data for the period 19832024 obtained from the World Bank and the Food and Agriculture Organization. Wheat import quantity, measured in metric tons, is used as the dependent variable, while the official exchange rate (LCU/US$, period average) is used as the independent variable. The study employs the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) technique to examine both the short-run and long-run dynamics between exchange rate and wheat import demand. The VECM results reveal a significant long-run relationship between exchange rate and wheat import demand in Uganda. The error correction term in the wheat import demand equation is negative and statistically significant (coefficient = -1.374033; t = -4.53724), indicating that deviations from long-run equilibrium are corrected rapidly, with about 137.4% of disequilibrium adjusted within a period. In the short run, the first lag of exchange rate changes has a positive and statistically significant effect on wheat import demand (coefficient = 1.774429; t = 2.67442), implying that exchange rate movements increase wheat import demand in Uganda. The wheat import demand equation also demonstrates good explanatory power (Adjusted R² = 0.565097; F-statistic = 10.61530). The study recommends that policymakers should promote exchange rate stability through sound macroeconomic policies to minimize excessive fluctuations that may distort wheat import demand and threaten food security in Uganda.
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📚 How to Cite:
Ndayizeye Wilber, Nahabwe Patrick Kagambo John, Munyambonera Ezra Francis, Ntakyo prossy , EXCHANGE RATE AND IMPORT DEMAND FOR WHEAT IN UGANDA: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION , Volume 13 , Issue 5, May 2026, EPRA International Journal of Economics, Business and Management Studies (EBMS) , DOI: https://doi.org/10.36713/epra27645